Slovakia U19 0–1 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Slovakia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Germany U19

U. Tohumcu 59' (pen)

9/27/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Sportplatz Franzsches Feld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slovakia U1926%

×Draw23%

Germany U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.78

Slovakia U19

1.23

Germany U19

1.78

Germany U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

2.27

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw

50%

Slovakia U19 or Germany U19

77%

Draw or Germany U19

74%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

71%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

35%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

13%

Germany U19 1+ goals

83%

Germany U19 2+ goals

53%

Germany U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.29 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more

26%

level

23%

Germany U19 scores more

50%

Germany U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

M. Damar

53'

59'

U. TohumcuPenalty

66'

M. Mišovič← M. Sauer

66'

V. Úradník← M. Riznič

67'

D. Alex← S. Javorček

70'

Y. Kabadayı← J. Diehl

75'

D. Bunk← M. Frauendorf

80'

Ľ. Praženka← A. Gajdoš

86'

A. Masaryk← A. Griger

89'

A. Zehnter← L. Ullrich

89'

M. Wenig← M. Damar

89'

S. Marino← K. Topp

Slovakia

Germany

1

Feller

5

Collins

16

Rothe

3

▼

Ullrich

2

Lehmann

15

Quarshie

6

⚽

Tohumcu

10

▼

Damar

7

▼

Frauendor

18

▼

Diehl

13

▼

12

3

2

5

4

13

10

▼

Gajdoš

8

▼

Sauer

17

▼

Riznič

9

▼

Javorček

16

▼

Griger

Manager: S. Macek

66'▲M. Mišovič←▼M. Sauer

66'▲V. Úradník←▼M. Riznič

67'▲D. Alex←▼S. Javorček

80'▲Ľ. Praženka←▼A. Gajdoš

86'▲A. Masaryk←▼A. Griger

Slovakia U19 substitutes

11Mišovič20Úradník6Alex19Praženka15Masaryk1Kúdelčík7Bortoli18Sauer14Demjanovič

Manager: G. Streichsbier

70'▲Y. Kabadayı←▼J. Diehl

75'▲D. Bunk←▼M. Frauendorf

89'▲A. Zehnter←▼L. Ullrich

89'▲M. Wenig←▼M. Damar

89'▲S. Marino←▼K. Topp

Germany U19 substitutes

11Kabadayı8Bunk17Zehnter14Wenig9Marino20Gruda12Backhaus19Ba