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Slovakia U19 vs Croatia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Slovakia U19
Slovakia U19
CANC
13:00
Croatia U19
Croatia U19
9/8/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 5Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovakia U1941%
×Draw26%
Croatia U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia U19
1.45
Croatia U19
1.29

Slovakia U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovakia U19
1.29
Croatia U19
1.00

allows per match

Slovakia U19
1.57
Croatia U19
1.60

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par
Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw
66%
Slovakia U19 or Croatia U19
74%
Draw or Croatia U19
59%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+
20%
Croatia U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals
77%
Slovakia U19 2+ goals
42%
Slovakia U19 3+ goals
18%
Croatia U19 1+ goals
72%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
37%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.29 + Croatia U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Croatia U19 attack 1.00 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more
41%
level
26%
Croatia U19 scores more
34%

Slovakia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovakia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovakia U19 host Croatia U19

September 8, 2020: Slovakia U19 take on Croatia U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovakia U19 host Croatia U19 at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.