Slovakia U19 2–0 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

Slovakia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Armenia U19

A. Masaryk 77'

A. Gajdoš 71'

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Sportplatz Franzsches Feld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slovakia U1954%

×Draw23%

Armenia U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.15

Slovakia U19

1.86

Armenia U19

1.15

Slovakia U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw

77%

Slovakia U19 or Armenia U19

77%

Draw or Armenia U19

46%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

31%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

84%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

55%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

28%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

68%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

32%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.29 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.86

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more

54%

level

23%

Armenia U19 scores more

23%

Slovakia U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slovakia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

H. Tatosyan← G. Papian

67'

E. Papikyan← K. Davtyan

71'

A. Gajdoš

74'

A. Mkrtychyan

76'

A. Masaryk← Ľ. Praženka

77'

A. Masaryk

78'

A. Eloyan← V. Tovmasyan

78'

N. Hovhannisyan← V. Hakobyan

82'

M. Demjanovič← A. Griger

82'

87'

87'

90+1'

Slovakia

Armenia

1

4

14

5

11

18

17

▼

Hakobyan

19

▼

Tovmasyan

6

▼

Papian

10

▼

7

12

3

5

20

13

10

⚽

▼

Gajdoš

8

▼

Sauer

9

Javorček

16

▼

Griger

18

▼

Sauer

19

▼

Praženka

Manager: S. Macek

76'▲A. Masaryk←▼Ľ. Praženka

82'▲M. Demjanovič←▼A. Griger

82'▲M. Riznič←▼M. Sauer

87'▲M. Mišovič←▼L. Sauer

87'▲D. Alex←▼A. Gajdoš

Slovakia U19 substitutes

15Masaryk14Demjanovič17Riznič11Mišovič6Alex1Kúdelčík7Bortoli2Mičuda4Jaššo

Manager: V. Minasyan

59'▲H. Tatosyan←▼G. Papian

67'▲E. Papikyan←▼K. Davtyan

78'▲A. Eloyan←▼V. Tovmasyan

78'▲N. Hovhannisyan←▼V. Hakobyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

8Tatosyan23Papikyan9Eloyan21Hovhannisyan3Grigoryan12Khachatryan2Darbinyan22Hovhannisyan15Kankanyan