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Slovakia U18 vs North Macedonia U18 — Friendlies 2026

Slovakia U18
Slovakia U18
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
North Macedonia U18
North Macedonia U18
D. Poltak 57'
10/2/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovakia U1849%
×Draw23%
North Macedonia U1828%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia U18
1.81
North Macedonia U18
1.30

Slovakia U18 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovakia U18
1.83
North Macedonia U18
0.60

allows per match

Slovakia U18
2.00
North Macedonia U18
1.80

finishing

Slovakia U18+0.00on par
North Macedonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U18 ↓

North Macedonia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovakia U18 or draw
72%
Slovakia U18 or North Macedonia U18
77%
Draw or North Macedonia U18
51%

Winning margin

Slovakia U18 wins by 2+
27%
North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovakia U18 1+ goals
84%
Slovakia U18 2+ goals
54%
Slovakia U18 3+ goals
27%
North Macedonia U18 1+ goals
73%
North Macedonia U18 2+ goals
37%
North Macedonia U18 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U18 (draw refunded)
64%
North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U18 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

North Macedonia U18 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U18 attack 1.83 + North Macedonia U18 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

North Macedonia U18 attack 0.60 + Slovakia U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slovakia U18 scores more
49%
level
23%
North Macedonia U18 scores more
28%

Slovakia U18 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovakia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
D. Poltak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Slovakia U18 1–0 North Macedonia U18

Slovakia U18 beat North Macedonia U18 1-0 in Friendlies on October 2, 2025.

Goals: D. Poltak (57').