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Slovakia U17 vs Switzerland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Slovakia U17
Slovakia U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
11/3/2025UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slovakia U1732%
×Draw22%
Switzerland U1746%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia U17
1.52
Switzerland U17
1.86

Switzerland U17 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Slovakia U17
1.50
Switzerland U17
1.91

allows per match

Slovakia U17
1.81
Switzerland U17
1.55

finishing

Slovakia U17+0.00on par
Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U17 ↓

Switzerland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slovakia U17 or draw
54%
Slovakia U17 or Switzerland U17
78%
Draw or Switzerland U17
68%

Winning margin

Slovakia U17 wins by 2+
15%
Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Slovakia U17 1+ goals
78%
Slovakia U17 2+ goals
45%
Slovakia U17 3+ goals
20%
Switzerland U17 1+ goals
84%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
55%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)
41%
Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Switzerland U17 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U17 attack 1.50 + Switzerland U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Switzerland U17 attack 1.91 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovakia U17 scores more
32%
level
22%
Switzerland U17 scores more
46%

Switzerland U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovakia U17 vs Switzerland U17

Slovakia U17 and Switzerland U17 drew 1-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 3, 2025.