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Slovakia U17 vs Gibraltar U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Slovakia U17
Slovakia U17
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Gibraltar U17
Gibraltar U17
11/1/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 2Dimotiko Stadio Sotiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slovakia U1788%
×Draw7%
Gibraltar U174%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia U17
4.25
Gibraltar U17
0.96

Slovakia U17 creates 343% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slovakia U17
1.50
Gibraltar U17
0.10

allows per match

Slovakia U17
1.81
Gibraltar U17
7.00

finishing

Slovakia U17+0.00on par
Gibraltar U17+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U17 ↓

Gibraltar U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Slovakia U17 or draw
96%
Slovakia U17 or Gibraltar U17
93%
Draw or Gibraltar U17
12%

Winning margin

Slovakia U17 wins by 2+
75%
Gibraltar U17 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Slovakia U17 1+ goals
98%
Slovakia U17 2+ goals
91%
Slovakia U17 3+ goals
76%
Gibraltar U17 1+ goals
62%
Gibraltar U17 2+ goals
25%
Gibraltar U17 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)
95%
Gibraltar U17 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Gibraltar U17 away — creates 0.10, concedes 7.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U17 attack 1.50 + Gibraltar U17 defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 4.25

Gibraltar U17 attack 0.10 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Slovakia U17 scores more
88%
level
7%
Gibraltar U17 scores more
4%

Slovakia U17 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Slovakia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Slovakia U17 7–0 Gibraltar U17

Slovakia U17 beat Gibraltar U17 7-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Sotiras in Sotira.