Slovakia U17 5–0 Armenia U17: Result & Stats

Slovakia U17

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Armenia U17

10/19/2021

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadyen Traktar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovakia U1770%

×Draw17%

Armenia U1713%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U17Expected goals in this matchArmenia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.07

Slovakia U17

2.62

Armenia U17

1.07

Slovakia U17 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.81

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Slovakia U17

1.50

Armenia U17

0.33

allows per match

Slovakia U17

1.81

Armenia U17

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U17+0.00on par

Armenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U17 ↓

Armenia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Slovakia U17 or draw

87%

Slovakia U17 or Armenia U17

83%

Draw or Armenia U17

30%

Winning margin

Slovakia U17 wins by 2+

48%

Armenia U17 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slovakia U17 1+ goals

93%

Slovakia U17 2+ goals

73%

Slovakia U17 3+ goals

48%

Armenia U17 1+ goals

66%

Armenia U17 2+ goals

29%

Armenia U17 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Armenia U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Armenia U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U17 attack 1.50 + Armenia U17 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.62

Armenia U17 attack 0.33 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slovakia U17 scores more

70%

level

17%

Armenia U17 scores more

13%

Slovakia U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slovakia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff