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Slovácko W vs Baník Ostrava W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slovácko W
Slovácko W
FT
2 – 2
Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
9/30/20231. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 5Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovácko W64%
×Draw18%
Baník Ostrava W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko W
2.68
Baník Ostrava W
1.40

Slovácko W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slovácko W
2.03
Baník Ostrava W
1.27

allows per match

Slovácko W
1.53
Baník Ostrava W
3.33

finishing

Slovácko W+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Slovácko W or draw
81%
Slovácko W or Baník Ostrava W
82%
Draw or Baník Ostrava W
36%

Winning margin

Slovácko W wins by 2+
43%
Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovácko W 1+ goals
93%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
74%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
49%
Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
75%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
41%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slovácko W (draw refunded)
78%
Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko W at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko W attack 2.03 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.68

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Slovácko W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slovácko W scores more
64%
level
18%
Baník Ostrava W scores more
19%

Slovácko W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Slovácko W 2–2 Baník Ostrava W

Slovácko W and Baník Ostrava W drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Women on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.