Slovácko 2–0 Vyškov: Result & Stats

Slovácko

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vyškov

7/9/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slovácko63%

×Draw19%

Vyškov18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlováckoExpected goals in this matchVyškov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.25

Slovácko

2.44

Vyškov

1.25

Slovácko creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

2.88

creates per match

1.44

1.06

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Slovácko

2.88

Vyškov

1.44

allows per match

Slovácko

1.06

Vyškov

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovácko+0.00on par

Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Vyškov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw

82%

Slovácko or Vyškov

81%

Draw or Vyškov

37%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+

41%

Vyškov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals

91%

Slovácko 2+ goals

70%

Slovácko 3+ goals

43%

Vyškov 1+ goals

71%

Vyškov 2+ goals

36%

Vyškov 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)

77%

Vyškov (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 2.88 + Vyškov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Vyškov attack 1.44 + Slovácko defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Slovácko scores more

63%

level

19%

Vyškov scores more

18%

Slovácko at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff