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Slovácko vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Slovácko
Slovácko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
11/3/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slovácko40%
×Draw25%
Plzen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko
1.52
Plzen
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slovácko
0.89
Plzen
1.41

allows per match

Slovácko
1.48
Plzen
2.14

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par
Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw
64%
Slovácko or Plzen
75%
Draw or Plzen
60%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+
19%
Plzen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals
78%
Slovácko 2+ goals
45%
Slovácko 3+ goals
20%
Plzen 1+ goals
76%
Plzen 2+ goals
42%
Plzen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)
52%
Plzen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Plzen attack 1.41 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slovácko scores more
40%
level
25%
Plzen scores more
36%

Slovácko at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slovácko 1–0 Plzen

Slovácko beat Plzen 1-0 in Czech Liga on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.