Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
Slovácko46%
Mlada Boleslav29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Slovácko creates 33% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Slovácko ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Slovácko at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches
Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Slovácko attack 1.38 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50
Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Slovácko defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Slovácko at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Slavia Praha
Plzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905SlováckoMlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Slovácko host Mlada Boleslav on Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Slovácko 1–1 Mlada Boleslav
Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on November 23, 2024.
Goals: V. Stránský (23'), M. Krmenčík (45+2').
Mlada Boleslav controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 14.
The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.