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Slovácko vs Karviná — Czech Liga 2019

Slovácko
Slovácko
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Karviná
Karviná
9/27/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slovácko49%
×Draw23%
Karviná28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko
1.80
Karviná
1.30

Slovácko creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovácko
0.89
Karviná
1.13

allows per match

Slovácko
1.48
Karviná
2.71

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par
Karviná+0.67scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Karviná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw
72%
Slovácko or Karviná
77%
Draw or Karviná
51%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+
27%
Karviná wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals
83%
Slovácko 2+ goals
54%
Slovácko 3+ goals
27%
Karviná 1+ goals
73%
Karviná 2+ goals
37%
Karviná 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)
64%
Karviná (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Karviná defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Karviná attack 1.13 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slovácko scores more
49%
level
23%
Karviná scores more
28%

Slovácko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko vs Karviná

Karviná beat Slovácko 2-1 in Czech Liga on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherske Hradiste.