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Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Slovácko
Slovácko
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
8/3/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 3Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slovácko34%
×Draw27%
Bohemians 190540%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko
1.22
Bohemians 1905
1.34

Bohemians 1905 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Slovácko
0.89
Bohemians 1905
1.21

allows per match

Slovácko
1.48
Bohemians 1905
1.55

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par
Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw
60%
Slovácko or Bohemians 1905
73%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
66%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+
14%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals
70%
Slovácko 2+ goals
34%
Slovácko 3+ goals
12%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
74%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
39%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)
46%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slovácko scores more
34%
level
27%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
40%

Bohemians 1905 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905

Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.