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Slovácko II vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
J. Pek 82'
9/20/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 7Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slovácko II66%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
2.27
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.99

Slovácko II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
85%
Slovácko II or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
34%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
43%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
90%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
66%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
39%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
63%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
26%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
81%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.27

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slovácko II scores more
66%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
15%

Slovácko II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
F. Kubala← J. Pek
46'
J. Rezek← M. Tomastik
82'
J. Pek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko II vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Slovácko II beat Vysočina Jihlava II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 20, 2020.

Goals: J. Pek (82').

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.