Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovácko II vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
4 – 1
Vyškov
Vyškov
J. Kliment 80', 45', 15'
F. Kubala 77'
P. Simr 25'
8/30/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 4Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slovácko II44%
×Draw25%
Vyškov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.55
Vyškov
1.27

Slovácko II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
69%
Slovácko II or Vyškov
75%
Draw or Vyškov
56%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
22%
Vyškov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
79%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
46%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
20%
Vyškov 1+ goals
72%
Vyškov 2+ goals
36%
Vyškov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
58%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovácko II scores more
44%
level
25%
Vyškov scores more
31%

Slovácko II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Kliment
22'
O. Vintr
25'
P. Simr
45'
J. Kliment
58'
D. Marecek← L. Pernica
71'
O. Pernatskyi← D. Nieslanik
76'
P. Hellebrand← A. Rihak
77'
F. Kubala
80'
J. Kliment
80'
J. Kliment← F. Vecheta
81'
P. Simr← J. Seyi
83'
J. Rezek← D. Kostka
85'
J. Srubek
85'
F. Kubala← J. Pek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovácko II 4–1 Vyškov

Slovácko II beat Vyškov 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 30, 2020.

Goals: J. Kliment (15', 45', 80'), P. Simr (25'), F. Kubala (77').

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.