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Slovácko II vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
T. Korycan 90'
M. Merdovic 36'
P. Brandner 9'
J. Kubena 58'
J. Kiska 39'
10/23/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Slovácko II50%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.89
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.33

Slovácko II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 68 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
73%
Slovácko II or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
50%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
28%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
85%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
56%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
29%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
38%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
65%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.89

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovácko II scores more
50%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
27%

Slovácko II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. Brandner
28'
J. Kiska
36'
M. Merdovic
39'
J. Kiska
50'
P. Gerza
58'
J. Kubena
62'
R. Bala
62'
I. Aldin← I. Aldin
70'
L. Pernica← E. Yohanna
76'
M. Guzik← M. Guzik
77'
O. Pernatskyi
78'
P. Brandner← D. Slechta
78'
O. Sasinka← T. Korycan
90'
T. Korycan
90+4'
E. Yohanna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko II vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Slovácko II beat Viktoria Otrokovice 3-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 23, 2022.

Goals: P. Brandner (9'), M. Merdovic (36'), J. Kiska (39'), J. Kubena (58'), T. Korycan (90').

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.