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Slovácko II vs Tatran Bohunice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
11/12/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovácko II52%
×Draw24%
Tatran Bohunice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.72
Tatran Bohunice
1.08

Slovácko II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Tatran Bohunice
0.88

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Tatran Bohunice
1.65

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Tatran Bohunice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
76%
Slovácko II or Tatran Bohunice
76%
Draw or Tatran Bohunice
48%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
29%
Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
82%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
51%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
25%
Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
66%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
29%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
69%
Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovácko II scores more
52%
level
24%
Tatran Bohunice scores more
24%

Slovácko II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovácko II 1–1 Tatran Bohunice

Slovácko II and Tatran Bohunice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.