Slonim 2–3 Volna: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Slonim

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Volna

T. Adamchik 57', 37'

D. Tkachik 66'

M. Grechikha 45', 7'

4/20/2024

1. Division · Round 3Stadyen Yunatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Slonim32%

×Draw25%

Volna42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlonimExpected goals in this matchVolna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Slonim

1.25

Volna

1.48

Volna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

0.95

creates per match

1.31

1.64

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Slonim

0.95

Volna

1.31

allows per match

Slonim

1.64

Volna

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par

Volna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

Volna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slonim or draw

58%

Slonim or Volna

75%

Draw or Volna

68%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+

14%

Volna wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals

71%

Slonim 2+ goals

36%

Slonim 3+ goals

13%

Volna 1+ goals

77%

Volna 2+ goals

43%

Volna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)

43%

Volna (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 129 matches

Volna away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 0.95 + Volna defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Volna attack 1.31 + Slonim defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slonim scores more

32%

level

25%

Volna scores more

42%

Volna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

26'

37'

45'

46'

T. Anisimov← A. Chuyko

57'

T. Adamchik

59'

E. Kozel

60'

D. Shulyak← V. Syrisko

60'

D. Tkachik← E. Kozel

66'

D. Tkachik

67'

E. Bozhko← K. Kovalevich

73'

V. Freytak← I. Lebedev

83'

E. Bozhko

84'

T. Anisimov

87'

T. Yormie← A. Orlovich

90+1'

I. Sushchinskiy← A. Bulychev

Slonim

Volna

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Mayorov

46'▲T. Anisimov←▼A. Chuyko

73'▲V. Freytak←▼I. Lebedev

87'▲T. Yormie←▼A. Orlovich

Slonim substitutes

AnisimovFreytakYormieAgapovTrushinskiyStainVechorkoPetrovLisyukKondratovich

Manager: S. Yaskovich

60'▲D. Shulyak←▼V. Syrisko

60'▲D. Tkachik←▼E. Kozel

67'▲E. Bozhko←▼K. Kovalevich

90+1'▲I. Sushchinskiy←▼A. Bulychev

Volna substitutes

ShulyakTkachikBozhkoSushchinskiyStankevichKlepachBelovTerletskiy

1. Division: Slonim 2–3 Volna

Volna beat Slonim 3-2 in 1. Division on April 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Grechikha (7', 45'), T. Adamchik (37', 57'), D. Tkachik (66').

The match was played at Stadyen Yunatstva in Slonim.

Slonim vs Volna — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Slonim 2–3 Volna