Slonim 1–1 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Slonim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ruh Brest

O. Gerasimchik 82'

M. Chizh 40'

6/22/2019

1. Division · Round 11Stadyen Yunatstva (Slonim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slonim16%

×Draw21%

Ruh Brest64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlonimExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

2.04

Slonim

0.89

Ruh Brest

2.04

Ruh Brest creates 129% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 14 away

0.92

creates per match

2.43

1.65

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Slonim

0.92

Ruh Brest

2.43

allows per match

Slonim

1.65

Ruh Brest

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Slonim or draw

36%

Slonim or Ruh Brest

79%

Draw or Ruh Brest

84%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+

5%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals

59%

Slonim 2+ goals

22%

Slonim 3+ goals

6%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

87%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

60%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)

20%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 127 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 0.92 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Slonim defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slonim scores more

16%

level

21%

Ruh Brest scores more

64%

Ruh Brest at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Chizh

55'

D. German← A. Krotov

67'

N. Bukatkin← D. Mulkevich

72'

V. Berg← S. Kuchmel

76'

D. Khmelnitskiy← V. Borisenko

76'

O. Gerasimchik← E. Chichev

77'

P. Pampukha← V. Demidovich

82'

O. Gerasimchik

85'

A. Teslyuk← M. Chizh

85'

Y. Oreshkevich← D. Sibelev

Slonim

Ruh

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Lagun

72'▲V. Berg←▼S. Kuchmel

76'▲D. Khmelnitskiy←▼V. Borisenko

76'▲O. Gerasimchik←▼E. Chichev

Slonim substitutes

BergKhmelnitskiyGerasimchikCheshun

Manager: A. Zygmantovich

55'▲D. German←▼A. Krotov

67'▲N. Bukatkin←▼D. Mulkevich

77'▲P. Pampukha←▼V. Demidovich

85'▲A. Teslyuk←▼M. Chizh

85'▲Y. Oreshkevich←▼D. Sibelev

Ruh Brest substitutes

GermanBukatkinPampukhaTeslyukOreshkevichKhutkoShchegrikovich