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Slonim vs FC Slutsk — 1. Division 2025

Slonim
Slonim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
10/26/20131. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadyen Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slonim24%
×Draw23%
FC Slutsk53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slonim
1.14
FC Slutsk
1.82

FC Slutsk creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slonim
1.15
FC Slutsk
2.00

allows per match

Slonim
1.65
FC Slutsk
1.13

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slonim or draw
47%
Slonim or FC Slutsk
77%
Draw or FC Slutsk
76%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+
9%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals
68%
Slonim 2+ goals
32%
Slonim 3+ goals
11%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
84%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
54%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)
31%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 1.15 + FC Slutsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

FC Slutsk attack 2.00 + Slonim defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slonim scores more
24%
level
23%
FC Slutsk scores more
53%

FC Slutsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slonim vs FC Slutsk

Slonim and FC Slutsk drew 0-0 in 1. Division on October 26, 2013.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Slonim.