Slonim 0–5 FC Dnepr Mogilev: Result & Stats

Slonim

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

FC Dnepr Mogilev

K. Kapov 85'

A. Aleksandrovich 53'

N. Krasnov 21' (pen)

M. Artyukh 18'

K. Zabelin 13'

10/21/2023

1. Division · Round 29Stadyen Yunatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Slonim23%

×Draw24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlonimExpected goals in this matchFC Dnepr Mogilev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.73

Slonim

1.03

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.73

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 68% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 53 away

0.95

creates per match

1.83

1.64

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Slonim

0.95

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.83

allows per match

Slonim

1.64

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slonim or draw

46%

Slonim or FC Dnepr Mogilev

76%

Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev

77%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+

8%

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals

64%

Slonim 2+ goals

28%

Slonim 3+ goals

9%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

82%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

52%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)

30%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 129 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.11 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 0.95 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.83 + Slonim defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slonim scores more

23%

level

24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

54%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Zabelin

18'

M. Artyukh

21'

N. KrasnovPenalty

46'

A. Aleksandrovich← N. Krasnov

46'

V. Stepanenko← N. Khlusov

50'

K. Kapov← M. Artyukh

53'

A. Aleksandrovich

58'

K. Karpenko

64'

P. Bordukov← D. Vigovskiy

73'

D. Tereshchenko← K. Zabelin

85'

K. Kapov

Slonim

FC

▼

⚽

▼

Krasnov

Lukashov

▼

Khlusov

⚽

▼

Artyukh

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Latosh

Slonim substitutes

AgapovKolomatskiy

Manager: V. Gerashchenko

46'▲A. Aleksandrovich←▼N. Krasnov

46'▲V. Stepanenko←▼N. Khlusov

50'▲K. Kapov←▼M. Artyukh

64'▲P. Bordukov←▼D. Vigovskiy

73'▲D. Tereshchenko←▼K. Zabelin

FC Dnepr Mogilev substitutes

AleksandrovichStepanenkoKapovBordukovTereshchenkoIgnatovichMarkovTseslyukevichKlochkov

1. Division: Slonim 0–5 FC Dnepr Mogilev

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat Slonim 5-0 in 1. Division on October 21, 2023.

Goals: K. Zabelin (13'), M. Artyukh (18'), N. Krasnov (21' pen), A. Aleksandrovich (53'), K. Kapov (85').

The match was played at Stadyen Yunatstva in Slonim.

Slonim vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Slonim 0–5 FC Dnepr Mogilev