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Sloga Vinica vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
4/1/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Vinica19%
×Draw21%
Voska Sport60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Vinica
1.11
Voska Sport
2.12

Voska Sport creates 91% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sloga Vinica
1.30
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Sloga Vinica
1.77
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Sloga Vinica+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Vinica ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sloga Vinica or draw
40%
Sloga Vinica or Voska Sport
79%
Draw or Voska Sport
81%

Winning margin

Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
7%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
67%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
30%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
10%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
88%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
62%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
24%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Vinica at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 43 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Vinica attack 1.30 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Sloga Vinica defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sloga Vinica scores more
19%
level
21%
Voska Sport scores more
60%

Voska Sport at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Vinica vs Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Sloga Vinica 3-1 in Second League on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori in Vinica.