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Sloga Vinica vs Vardar Skopje — Second League 2019

Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
11/5/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sloga Vinica23%
×Draw24%
Vardar Skopje53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Vinica
1.06
Vardar Skopje
1.73

Vardar Skopje creates 63% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sloga Vinica
1.30
Vardar Skopje
1.69

allows per match

Sloga Vinica
1.77
Vardar Skopje
0.81

finishing

Sloga Vinica+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Vinica ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sloga Vinica or draw
47%
Sloga Vinica or Vardar Skopje
76%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
77%

Winning margin

Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
9%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
65%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
29%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
9%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
82%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
52%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
30%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Vinica at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 43 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Vinica attack 1.30 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vardar Skopje attack 1.69 + Sloga Vinica defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sloga Vinica scores more
23%
level
24%
Vardar Skopje scores more
53%

Vardar Skopje at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sloga Vinica 0–3 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Sloga Vinica 3-0 in Second League on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori in Vinica.