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Sloga Vinica vs Belasica — Second League 2019

Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Belasica
Belasica
9/20/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sloga Vinica29%
×Draw25%
Belasica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Vinica
1.24
Belasica
1.61

Belasica creates 30% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sloga Vinica
1.30
Belasica
1.46

allows per match

Sloga Vinica
1.77
Belasica
1.18

finishing

Sloga Vinica+0.00on par
Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Vinica ↓

Belasica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloga Vinica or draw
54%
Sloga Vinica or Belasica
75%
Draw or Belasica
71%

Winning margin

Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
12%
Belasica wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
71%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
35%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
13%
Belasica 1+ goals
80%
Belasica 2+ goals
48%
Belasica 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
39%
Belasica (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Vinica at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 43 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Vinica attack 1.30 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Belasica attack 1.46 + Sloga Vinica defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sloga Vinica scores more
29%
level
25%
Belasica scores more
46%

Belasica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sloga Vinica 1–2 Belasica

Belasica beat Sloga Vinica 2-1 in Second League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori in Vinica.