Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1–1 Loznica: Result & Stats

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Loznica

8/26/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 2Stadion Sloga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi44%

×Draw26%

Loznica29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga Petrovac na MlaviExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.42

Loznica

1.11

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 39 away

1.61

creates per match

1.08

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.61

Loznica

1.08

allows per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.15

Loznica

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or draw

71%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or Loznica

74%

Draw or Loznica

56%

Winning margin

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+

21%

Loznica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals

76%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals

41%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals

17%

Loznica 1+ goals

67%

Loznica 2+ goals

30%

Loznica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)

60%

Loznica (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 1.61 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Loznica attack 1.08 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more

44%

level

26%

Loznica scores more

29%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff