Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2–0 Jošanica

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jošanica

11/25/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion Sloga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi50%

×Draw25%

Jošanica25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga Petrovac na MlaviExpected goals in this matchJošanica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.58

Jošanica

1.04

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi creates 52% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.61

Jošanica

0.94

allows per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.15

Jošanica

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Jošanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi ↓

Jošanica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or draw

75%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or Jošanica

75%

Draw or Jošanica

50%

Winning margin

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+

26%

Jošanica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals

79%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals

47%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals

21%

Jošanica 1+ goals

65%

Jošanica 2+ goals

28%

Jošanica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)

67%

Jošanica (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Jošanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 1.61 + Jošanica defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jošanica attack 0.94 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more

50%

level

25%

Jošanica scores more

25%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff