Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 0–1 Budučnost Krušik

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

FT

0 – 1

Budučnost Krušik

11/21/2020

Srpska Liga - West · West - 17Stadion Sloga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi48%

×Draw26%

Budučnost Krušik26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga Petrovac na MlaviExpected goals in this matchBudučnost Krušik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.03

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.49

Budučnost Krušik

1.03

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 86 away

1.61

creates per match

0.91

1.15

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.61

Budučnost Krušik

0.91

allows per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.15

Budučnost Krušik

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi ↓

Budučnost Krušik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or draw

74%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or Budučnost Krušik

74%

Draw or Budučnost Krušik

52%

Winning margin

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+

24%

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals

77%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals

44%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals

19%

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals

64%

Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals

28%

Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)

65%

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Budučnost Krušik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 1.61 + Budučnost Krušik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Budučnost Krušik attack 0.91 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more

48%

level

26%

Budučnost Krušik scores more

26%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff