Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sloga Mravince vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Otok
Otok
3/6/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 20Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sloga Mravince68%
×Draw18%
Otok14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
2.33
Otok
0.96

Sloga Mravince creates 143% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
Otok
0.88

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
Otok
2.70

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
86%
Sloga Mravince or Otok
82%
Draw or Otok
32%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
45%
Otok wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
90%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
67%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
41%
Otok 1+ goals
62%
Otok 2+ goals
25%
Otok 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
83%
Otok (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.33

Otok attack 0.88 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
68%
level
18%
Otok scores more
14%

Sloga Mravince at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Sloga Mravince 4–1 Otok

Sloga Mravince beat Otok 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.