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Sloga Mravince vs Neretvanac Opuzen — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
0 – 1
Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
9/11/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sloga Mravince59%
×Draw21%
Neretvanac Opuzen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
2.00
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.06

Sloga Mravince creates 89% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.09

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
Neretvanac Opuzen
2.04

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
80%
Sloga Mravince or Neretvanac Opuzen
79%
Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen
41%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
35%
Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
86%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
59%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
32%
Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
65%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
29%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
75%
Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.00

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
59%
level
21%
Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
20%

Sloga Mravince at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Mravince vs Neretvanac Opuzen

Neretvanac Opuzen beat Sloga Mravince 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.