Sloga Mravince 3–2 HNK Hajduk Split II

Sloga Mravince

FT

3 – 2

HNK Hajduk Split II

3/23/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 20Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Mravince72%

×Draw17%

HNK Hajduk Split II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga MravinceExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.92

Sloga Mravince

2.51

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.92

Sloga Mravince creates 173% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

0.80

1.03

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Sloga Mravince

1.95

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.80

allows per match

Sloga Mravince

1.03

HNK Hajduk Split II

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw

88%

Sloga Mravince or HNK Hajduk Split II

83%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II

28%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+

49%

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals

92%

Sloga Mravince 2+ goals

71%

Sloga Mravince 3+ goals

45%

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

60%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

23%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)

86%

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.51

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more

72%

level

17%

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

12%

Sloga Mravince at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff