Sloga Leskovac 1–3 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Sloga Leskovac

FT

1 – 3

Pčinja Trgovište

11/6/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 13Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sloga Leskovac42%

×Draw23%

Pčinja Trgovište36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga LeskovacExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.64

Sloga Leskovac

1.78

Pčinja Trgovište

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

1.69

creates per match

1.11

2.17

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Sloga Leskovac

1.69

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Sloga Leskovac

2.17

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Leskovac ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sloga Leskovac or draw

64%

Sloga Leskovac or Pčinja Trgovište

77%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

58%

Winning margin

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+

22%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals

83%

Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals

53%

Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals

26%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

81%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

49%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)

54%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Leskovac at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Leskovac attack 1.69 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sloga Leskovac scores more

42%

level

23%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

36%

Sloga Leskovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sloga Leskovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Sloga Leskovac 1–3 Pčinja Trgovište

Pčinja Trgovište beat Sloga Leskovac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac in Leskovac.

Sloga Leskovac vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Srpska Liga - East: Sloga Leskovac 1–3 Pčinja Trgovište