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Sloga Leskovac vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Sloga Leskovac
Sloga Leskovac
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Meševo
Meševo
5/4/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sloga Leskovac42%
×Draw23%
Meševo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Leskovac
1.75
Meševo
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sloga Leskovac
1.69
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

Sloga Leskovac
2.17
Meševo
1.82

finishing

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Leskovac ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sloga Leskovac or draw
65%
Sloga Leskovac or Meševo
77%
Draw or Meševo
58%

Winning margin

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+
22%
Meševo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals
83%
Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals
52%
Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals
25%
Meševo 1+ goals
80%
Meševo 2+ goals
47%
Meševo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)
54%
Meševo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Leskovac at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Leskovac attack 1.69 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Meševo attack 1.04 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sloga Leskovac scores more
42%
level
23%
Meševo scores more
35%

Sloga Leskovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sloga Leskovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Sloga Leskovac 0–2 Meševo

Meševo beat Sloga Leskovac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac in Leskovac.