Sloga Leskovac vs Dinamo Vranje

Sloga Leskovac

CANC

13:00

Dinamo Vranje

3/5/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 16Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sloga Leskovac48%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Vranje28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga LeskovacExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.30

Sloga Leskovac

1.77

Dinamo Vranje

1.30

Sloga Leskovac creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

0.43

2.17

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sloga Leskovac

1.69

Dinamo Vranje

0.43

allows per match

Sloga Leskovac

2.17

Dinamo Vranje

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Leskovac ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sloga Leskovac or draw

72%

Sloga Leskovac or Dinamo Vranje

77%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

52%

Winning margin

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+

26%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals

83%

Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals

53%

Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Leskovac at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Leskovac attack 1.69 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sloga Leskovac scores more

48%

level

23%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

28%

Sloga Leskovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sloga Leskovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff