Sloga Kraljevo 2–0 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Sloga Kraljevo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

5/5/2021

Prva Liga · Round 31Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sloga Kraljevo42%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Vranje29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga KraljevoExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Sloga Kraljevo

1.19

Dinamo Vranje

0.94

Sloga Kraljevo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sloga Kraljevo

1.00

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

Sloga Kraljevo

1.00

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Kraljevo+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Kraljevo ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sloga Kraljevo or draw

71%

Sloga Kraljevo or Dinamo Vranje

71%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

58%

Winning margin

Sloga Kraljevo wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sloga Kraljevo 1+ goals

70%

Sloga Kraljevo 2+ goals

33%

Sloga Kraljevo 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

61%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

24%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Kraljevo (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Kraljevo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Kraljevo attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + Sloga Kraljevo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sloga Kraljevo scores more

42%

level

29%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

29%

Sloga Kraljevo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sloga Kraljevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff