Sloga Doboj 0–1 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

Sloga Doboj

FT

0 – 1

Zvijezda 09

Unknown 80'

11/13/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 14Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Doboj56%

×Draw24%

Zvijezda 0921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga DobojExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

Sloga Doboj

1.73

Zvijezda 09

0.95

Sloga Doboj creates 82% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 79 away

2.23

creates per match

1.27

0.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sloga Doboj

2.23

Zvijezda 09

1.27

allows per match

Sloga Doboj

0.63

Zvijezda 09

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw

79%

Sloga Doboj or Zvijezda 09

76%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

44%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

31%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

82%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

52%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

25%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

61%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

25%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

73%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more

56%

level

24%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

21%

Sloga Doboj at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff