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Sloga Doboj vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
2 – 0
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
10/30/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 12Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Doboj68%
×Draw20%
Tekstilac Derventa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
1.94
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

Sloga Doboj creates 203% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
2.23
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
0.63
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
89%
Sloga Doboj or Tekstilac Derventa
80%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
32%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
42%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
86%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
58%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
30%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
47%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
14%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
86%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
68%
level
20%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
11%

Sloga Doboj at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs Tekstilac Derventa

Sloga Doboj beat Tekstilac Derventa 2-0 in 1st League - RS on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.