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Sloga Doboj vs Siroki Brijeg — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
5/2/2026Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 32Stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sloga Doboj42%
×Draw27%
Siroki Brijeg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
1.32
Siroki Brijeg
1.07

Sloga Doboj creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
1.21
Siroki Brijeg
0.97

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
1.18
Siroki Brijeg
1.43

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Siroki Brijeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
70%
Sloga Doboj or Siroki Brijeg
73%
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
58%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
19%
Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
73%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
38%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
15%
Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
66%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
29%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
58%
Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
42%
level
27%
Siroki Brijeg scores more
30%

Sloga Doboj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Sloga Doboj 2–0 Siroki Brijeg

Sloga Doboj beat Siroki Brijeg 2-0 in Premijer Liga on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Luke in Doboj.