Sloga Doboj 1–0 Posušje: Result & Stats

Sloga Doboj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Posušje

12/9/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 17Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sloga Doboj46%

×Draw28%

Posušje26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga DobojExpected goals in this matchPosušje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.95

Sloga Doboj

1.36

Posušje

0.95

Sloga Doboj creates 43% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

1.21

creates per match

0.73

1.18

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sloga Doboj

1.21

Posušje

0.73

allows per match

Sloga Doboj

1.18

Posušje

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Posušje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw

74%

Sloga Doboj or Posušje

72%

Draw or Posušje

54%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

22%

Posušje wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

74%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

39%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

16%

Posušje 1+ goals

61%

Posušje 2+ goals

25%

Posušje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

64%

Posušje (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Posušje attack 0.73 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more

46%

level

28%

Posušje scores more

26%

Sloga Doboj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff