Posušje 0–0 Sloga Doboj: Result & Stats

Posušje

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sloga Doboj

4/6/2025

Premijer Liga · Round 24Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Posušje51%

×Draw27%

Sloga Doboj22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PosušjeExpected goals in this matchSloga Doboj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.84

Posušje

1.44

Sloga Doboj

0.84

Posušje creates 71% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

1.14

creates per match

0.76

0.93

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Posušje

1.14

Sloga Doboj

0.76

allows per match

Posušje

0.93

Sloga Doboj

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Sloga Doboj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Posušje or draw

78%

Posušje or Sloga Doboj

73%

Draw or Sloga Doboj

49%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+

26%

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals

76%

Posušje 2+ goals

42%

Posušje 3+ goals

18%

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

57%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

21%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)

70%

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sloga Doboj attack 0.76 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Posušje scores more

51%

level

27%

Sloga Doboj scores more

22%

Posušje at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff