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Sloga Doboj vs Podrinje Janja — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
2 – 0
Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
10/10/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 10Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Doboj73%
×Draw17%
Podrinje Janja10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
2.32
Podrinje Janja
0.72

Sloga Doboj creates 222% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
2.23
Podrinje Janja
0.80

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
0.63
Podrinje Janja
2.41

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Podrinje Janja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
90%
Sloga Doboj or Podrinje Janja
83%
Draw or Podrinje Janja
27%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
50%
Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
90%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
67%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
40%
Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
51%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
16%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
88%
Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.32

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
73%
level
17%
Podrinje Janja scores more
10%

Sloga Doboj at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs Podrinje Janja

Sloga Doboj beat Podrinje Janja 2-0 in 1st League - RS on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.