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Sloga Doboj vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
4/9/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 22Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Doboj74%
×Draw17%
Modriča9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
2.29
Modriča
0.67

Sloga Doboj creates 242% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
2.23
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
0.63
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
91%
Sloga Doboj or Modriča
83%
Draw or Modriča
26%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
50%
Modriča wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
90%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
66%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
40%
Modriča 1+ goals
49%
Modriča 2+ goals
15%
Modriča 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
89%
Modriča (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.29

Modriča attack 0.70 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
74%
level
17%
Modriča scores more
9%

Sloga Doboj at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs Modriča

Sloga Doboj beat Modriča 4-0 in 1st League - RS on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.