Sloga Doboj 0–2 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

Sloga Doboj

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Igman Konjic

9/25/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 8Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sloga Doboj51%

×Draw24%

Igman Konjic26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga DobojExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.19

Sloga Doboj

1.76

Igman Konjic

1.19

Sloga Doboj creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

1.20

1.18

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Sloga Doboj

1.21

Igman Konjic

1.20

allows per match

Sloga Doboj

1.18

Igman Konjic

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw

74%

Sloga Doboj or Igman Konjic

76%

Draw or Igman Konjic

49%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

28%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

83%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

52%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

26%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

70%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

33%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

66%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.76

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more

51%

level

24%

Igman Konjic scores more

26%

Sloga Doboj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff