Sloga Doboj 4–0 Budućnost Pilica: Result & Stats

Sloga Doboj

FT

4 – 0

Budućnost Pilica

10/2/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 8Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Doboj85%

×Draw10%

Budućnost Pilica4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga DobojExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Pilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

0.52

Sloga Doboj

2.95

Budućnost Pilica

0.52

Sloga Doboj creates 467% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.23

creates per match

0.40

0.63

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Sloga Doboj

2.23

Budućnost Pilica

0.40

allows per match

Sloga Doboj

0.63

Budućnost Pilica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Budućnost Pilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw

96%

Sloga Doboj or Budućnost Pilica

90%

Draw or Budućnost Pilica

15%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

67%

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

95%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

79%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

55%

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

41%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

10%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

95%

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.95

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more

85%

level

10%

Budućnost Pilica scores more

4%

Sloga Doboj at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff