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Sloga Čonoplja vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
FT
0 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
4/30/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 32Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja38%
×Draw26%
Tisa Adorjan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Čonoplja
1.39
Tisa Adorjan
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw
63%
Sloga Čonoplja or Tisa Adorjan
74%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
62%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
17%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
40%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
16%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
74%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
39%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
51%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more
38%
level
26%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
37%

Sloga Čonoplja at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Čonoplja vs Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat Sloga Čonoplja 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SC Čonoplja in Čonoplja.