Sloga Čonoplja 0–3 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Sloga Čonoplja

FT

0 – 3

Stari Grad

8/26/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja47%

×Draw25%

Stari Grad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga ČonopljaExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.11

Sloga Čonoplja

1.54

Stari Grad

1.11

Sloga Čonoplja creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.09

1.14

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw

73%

Sloga Čonoplja or Stari Grad

75%

Draw or Stari Grad

53%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

24%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

79%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

45%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

20%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

67%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

30%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

63%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

47%

level

25%

Stari Grad scores more

27%

Sloga Čonoplja at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff