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Sloga Čonoplja vs Borac Šajkaš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
FT
3 – 1
Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
8/24/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja44%
×Draw27%
Borac Šajkaš29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Čonoplja
1.35
Borac Šajkaš
1.03

Sloga Čonoplja creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Borac Šajkaš
0.93

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Borac Šajkaš
1.57

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par
Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Borac Šajkaš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw
71%
Sloga Čonoplja or Borac Šajkaš
73%
Draw or Borac Šajkaš
56%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
21%
Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
74%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
39%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
15%
Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
64%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
28%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
61%
Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more
44%
level
27%
Borac Šajkaš scores more
29%

Sloga Čonoplja at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloga Čonoplja 3–1 Borac Šajkaš

Sloga Čonoplja beat Borac Šajkaš 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SC Čonoplja in Čonoplja.