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Slobozia Mare vs Saxan — Cupa 2020

Slobozia Mare
Slobozia Mare
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Saxan
Saxan
C. Leu 73' (pen)
A. Umar 67'
B. Gontran 31', 18'
G. Ouattara 29'
10/3/2023CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Slobozia Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slobozia Mare24%
×Draw16%
Saxan59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slobozia Mare
2.23
Saxan
3.41

Saxan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slobozia Mare
1.75
Saxan
3.57

allows per match

Slobozia Mare
3.25
Saxan
2.71

finishing

Slobozia Mare+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slobozia Mare ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Slobozia Mare or draw
41%
Slobozia Mare or Saxan
84%
Draw or Saxan
76%

Winning margin

Slobozia Mare wins by 2+
12%
Saxan wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Slobozia Mare 1+ goals
89%
Slobozia Mare 2+ goals
65%
Slobozia Mare 3+ goals
38%
Saxan 1+ goals
96%
Saxan 2+ goals
85%
Saxan 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Slobozia Mare (draw refunded)
29%
Saxan (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slobozia Mare at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Saxan away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slobozia Mare attack 1.75 + Saxan defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Saxan attack 3.57 + Slobozia Mare defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slobozia Mare scores more
24%
level
16%
Saxan scores more
59%

Saxan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
B. Gontran
29'
G. Ouattara
31'
B. Gontran
67'
A. Umar
73'
C. LeuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slobozia Mare vs Saxan

Saxan beat Slobozia Mare 5-0 in Cupa on October 3, 2023.

Goals: B. Gontran (18', 31'), G. Ouattara (29'), A. Umar (67'), C. Leu (73' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Slobozia Mare in Slobozia Mare.