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Slobozia Mare vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport — Cupa 2020

Slobozia Mare
Slobozia Mare
FT
4 – 1
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
8/29/2023CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Slobozia Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slobozia Mare37%
×Draw21%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slobozia Mare
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slobozia Mare
1.75
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.00

allows per match

Slobozia Mare
3.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.25

finishing

Slobozia Mare+0.00on par
Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slobozia Mare ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Slobozia Mare or draw
58%
Slobozia Mare or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
79%
Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
63%

Winning margin

Slobozia Mare wins by 2+
20%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slobozia Mare 1+ goals
86%
Slobozia Mare 2+ goals
59%
Slobozia Mare 3+ goals
32%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
88%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
63%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Slobozia Mare (draw refunded)
47%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slobozia Mare at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slobozia Mare attack 1.75 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.00 + Slobozia Mare defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slobozia Mare scores more
37%
level
21%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
42%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slobozia Mare vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Slobozia Mare beat Gagauziya-Oguzsport 4-1 in Cupa on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Slobozia Mare in Slobozia Mare.