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Slobozia Mare vs Cahul — Cupa 2020

Slobozia Mare
Slobozia Mare
FT
2 – 3
Cahul
Cahul
8/24/2021CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Slobozia Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slobozia Mare13%
×Draw14%
Cahul73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slobozia Mare
1.38
Cahul
3.33

Cahul creates 141% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slobozia Mare
1.75
Cahul
3.40

allows per match

Slobozia Mare
3.25
Cahul
1.00

finishing

Slobozia Mare+0.00on par
Cahul+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slobozia Mare ↓

Cahul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Slobozia Mare or draw
27%
Slobozia Mare or Cahul
86%
Draw or Cahul
87%

Winning margin

Slobozia Mare wins by 2+
5%
Cahul wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Slobozia Mare 1+ goals
75%
Slobozia Mare 2+ goals
40%
Slobozia Mare 3+ goals
16%
Cahul 1+ goals
96%
Cahul 2+ goals
84%
Cahul 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Slobozia Mare (draw refunded)
15%
Cahul (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slobozia Mare at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Cahul away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slobozia Mare attack 1.75 + Cahul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cahul attack 3.40 + Slobozia Mare defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Slobozia Mare scores more
13%
level
14%
Cahul scores more
73%

Cahul at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cahul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slobozia Mare vs Cahul

Cahul beat Slobozia Mare 3-2 in Cupa on August 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Slobozia Mare in Slobozia Mare.