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Sloboda Uzice vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
10/28/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sloboda Uzice56%
×Draw24%
RFK Novi Sad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.70
RFK Novi Sad
0.92

Sloboda Uzice creates 85% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.04
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
80%
Sloboda Uzice or RFK Novi Sad
76%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
44%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
31%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
82%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
51%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
24%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
60%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
73%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
56%
level
24%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
20%

Sloboda Uzice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Uzice vs RFK Novi Sad

Sloboda Uzice beat RFK Novi Sad 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.